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Mesoscale Discussion 1838
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT THU OCT 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...NE NM...WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524...

   VALID 100026Z - 100200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 524 WILL MOVE BE MAINTAINED
   THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. THE
   MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE
   STRONGER CELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NCNTRL AND ERN
   PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE ALONG WHICH A CLUSTER OF
   THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF AMARILLO. THE LATEST HRRR
   GRADUALLY MOVES THESE CELLS EWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAINTAINS CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. THE MODEL ALSO
   EXPANDS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE NCNTRL TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS
   EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z AMARILLO SOUNDING SHOWS MLCAPE OF
   1300 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT AND A MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF
   7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...AN ISOLATED
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 10/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34700001 34720303 35710304 35740330 36090335 36100375
               36180377 36230402 36990397 37019947 36859930 36609931
               36599958 36129960 36139936 35529936 35519957 35439957
               35420000 34759998 34700001 

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Page last modified: October 10, 2014
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