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Mesoscale Discussion 1839
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 PM CDT THU OCT 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE...WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524...

   VALID 100334Z - 100500Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 524 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULE OUT. THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD AFFECT THE TX PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WRN OK TO SRN KS
   BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME. NEW WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING
   ACROSS WW 524 WITH THE FIRST LOCATED IN HEMPHILL AND WHEELER
   COUNTIES OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS LINE SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE EWD INTO WRN OK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
   CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BUT SUGGESTS THAT
   INSTABILITY WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE OK STATE-LINE.
   ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE
   THREAT...THE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND
   OF CELL INTENSITY AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO WRN OK.

   A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE.
   THESE CELLS ARE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WHERE INSTABILITY IS
   WEAK. THE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN AIRMASS WITH BETTER QUALITY
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SFC DEWPOINT AT DALHART OF 58 F AND AT
   BORGER OF 60 F. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM A
   SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPORY...MAY HELP MAINTAIN
   CELL INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE WSR-88D VWP AT AMARILLO
   STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION WITH 0-3
   STORM RELATIVELY HELICITY AROUND 230 M2/S2. AS THE CELLS MOVE
   ESEWD...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ENABLE A BRIEF TORNADO TO FORM.
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR AS WELL BUT THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TOWARD WATCH EXPIRATION.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 10/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35089835 34829892 34970091 35000255 35920259 36800184
               36959989 36939890 36819840 36519811 35929816 35089835 

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Page last modified: October 10, 2014
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