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Mesoscale Discussion 1840
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NERN AL...FAR NWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101819Z - 101945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE ORGANIZED
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
   LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AT 18Z...DISCRETE CELLS WITH A HISTORY OF WEAK MIDLEVEL
   ROTATION ARE MOVING INTO ERN TN...WHILE AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER
   HAS EVOLVED FURTHER WEST OVER MIDDLE TN ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE HELPED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
   THUS FAR...BUT CLEARING ACROSS SERN TN HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
   INTO THE LOWER 80S...RESULTING IN SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
   25-35 KTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
   PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ANY CELL THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT
   WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE
   OF THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..DEAN/DARROW.. 10/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34788640 34878701 35028727 35328673 35538654 35908634
               36148505 36078402 35738384 34938441 34838512 34788640 

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Page last modified: October 10, 2014
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