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Mesoscale Discussion 1841
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...N TX...FAR SWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101926Z - 102100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS SHOULD
   DEVELOP AMIDST INCREASING STORM COVERAGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
   BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING S/SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1010 MB CYCLONE AROUND 30
   SW MLC ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED SW TO A 1009 MB
   CYCLONE OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY OF W TX. INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE HAS
   BEEN NEAR THE LEAD CYCLONE WITH AGITATED CU/INITIAL CBS FORMING OVER
   A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY. AIR MASS WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR IS LIKELY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
   AMIDST SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 80S. 

   THE ANAFRONTAL/UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE FRONT SW OF THE LEAD
   CYCLONE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SUSTAINING SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
   DEEP SHEAR WILL FAVOR A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. FARTHER NE...VEERING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONGER
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /AS SAMPLED BY SRX VWP DATA/ MAY COMPENSATE FOR
   THE WEAKER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND PREDOMINATELY CLUSTER MODE.
   THIS COULD YIELD LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF WEAK
   TORNADO.

   ..GRAMS/DARROW.. 10/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33429935 34359800 34929610 34949469 34889374 34349326
               33669357 33379509 32869695 32339819 32059914 32099974
               32350005 32490012 33429935 

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Page last modified: October 10, 2014
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