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Mesoscale Discussion 1842
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN NC...S-CNTRL VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101954Z - 102130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WIND. THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE THREAT APPEARS TOO
   LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 1-2
   HRS ACROSS NRN NC/SRN VA...WITH SOME MIDLEVEL ROTATION NOTED WITH
   THE CELL MOVING INTO HALIFAX COUNTY VA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
   IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...WITH HEATING
   SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
   IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. 

   THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN RELATIVELY
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY. WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT THE
   SEVERE HAIL THREAT OVERALL. 

   GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
   MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOW
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS AREA IN THE 20Z
   OUTLOOK.

   ..DEAN/DARROW.. 10/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35138279 35618306 36358114 36907926 37117860 37017781
               36667771 36427779 36297823 36227880 35987980 35838054
               35628142 35398209 35138279 

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Page last modified: October 10, 2014
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