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Mesoscale Discussion 1843
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY...BIG COUNTRY OF TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 102036Z - 102200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SW OF RECENTLY ISSUED WW 525 ...STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
   BE DELAYED UNTIL 22-00Z. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND APPEAR
   PROBABLE ONCE THIS OCCURS.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1008 MB CYCLONE AROUND 40
   SE BGS ALONG A SWD-SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARM SECTOR STRATUS
   THAT LINGERED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HAD LIMITED INSOLATION AND
   MAINTAINED GREATER MLCIN RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE WITHIN WW 525. BUT
   WITH STRATUS BREAKING UP OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG WITH THE FRONT
   APPROACHING THE NEAR FULL INSOLATION WARM SECTOR OVER THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...MLCIN SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   RECENT HRRR RUNS ALONG WITH 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE
   HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE CYCLONE.
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR AMIDST NEAR
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLYS AOA 3 KM AGL SHOULD FAVOR A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
   INITIALLY. THE UNDERCUTTING/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD
   SUPPORT TRANSITION TO A CLUSTER MODE AND MIXED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK
   LATER IN THE EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/DARROW.. 10/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32540033 33169940 33199901 32359899 31849886 31139932
               30830013 30830076 30900121 31130138 31830112 32540033 

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Page last modified: October 10, 2014
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