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Mesoscale Discussion 1844
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS AND AL INTO FAR NW GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102138Z - 102315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
   SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/AL
   INTO NORTHWEST GA. WHILE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED...A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE STATUS. A
   WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POTENTIALLY
   SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THE SOUTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR /30-40 KT/ ASSOCIATED WITH
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ONGOING
   CONVECTION WAS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F AND MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
   1000-1500 J/KG. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-6.5 DEG C PER KM/ AND
   INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT
   AS THE LONGEVITY OF ANY INTENSE UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
   WHILE THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL EXCEPT IN THE
   STRONGEST CELLS...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO GUSTY
   WINDS. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED AND A
   WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/BROYLES.. 10/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33198846 33059034 33149097 33429118 33739110 34049067
               34438971 34818846 34978729 35048556 35038483 34898457
               34478460 34098474 33718511 33358588 33248691 33198846 

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Page last modified: October 10, 2014
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