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Mesoscale Discussion 1845
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102231Z - 110000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525 BY AS EARLY
   AS 23Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   DOWNSTREAM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SERN OK
   WITH AN ASSOCIATED SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN REINFORCED
   BY CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDING ENEWD THROUGH CNTRL AR
   /JUST N OF LIT/ TO JUST N OF MEM. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THE
   COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS
   IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
   RANGE.

   WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG ACTIVE COLD POOLS AND THE SYNOPTIC
   FRONT MAY SUPPORT FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION AS ACTIVITY
   CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. AREA VAD DATA
   INDICATE A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
   MODES INCLUDING BOWING STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   SHOULD SUBSEQUENT RADAR DATA INDICATE FURTHER STORM
   INTENSIFICATION...A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

   ..MEAD/BROYLES.. 10/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35039301 35369254 35529139 35409075 35189041 34719056
               34119105 33789161 33759222 33909298 34079335 34679332
               35039301 

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Page last modified: October 11, 2014
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