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Mesoscale Discussion 1846
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1846
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN INTO NRN TX / SRN OK / WRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...526...

   VALID 110039Z - 110215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   525...526...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THROUGH 03Z...EXPECT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE
   WEATHER TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX CONCHO VALLEY AND
   BIG COUNTRY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 0020Z...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED MULTIPLE
   ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS OVER RUNNELS...COKE...MITCHELL
   AND NOLAN COUNTIES OF W-CNTRL TX. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
   HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE PAST HOUR. CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAS REINFORCED THE SWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
   COLD FRONT...WITH REFLECTIVITY RADAR DATA FROM SAN ANGELO SUGGESTING
   THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ATOP A STABLE
   NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /REF. 00Z MAF AND DRT SOUNDINGS/ COUPLED WITH AMPLE
   CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM FROM FAR WRN TX SHOULD SUSTAIN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY FOR AT
   LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR MAINLY
   LARGE HAIL.

   ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING BEHIND THE
   COLD FRONT FROM SW OF SPS TO JUST W OF LIT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE
   A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WHILE
   PROGRESSING GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS.

   ..MEAD/BROYLES.. 10/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32560220 32570080 32970069 33009903 34219890 35079525
               35219312 34759326 34069337 33569433 32989577 32569699
               32389846 30999912 31070025 31080172 31650231 32560220 

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Page last modified: October 11, 2014
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