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Mesoscale Discussion 1849
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 110438Z - 110545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY IN THE FORM
   OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA BY ABOUT 6Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR...A QLCS HAS ORGANIZED ALONG A
   STRENGTHENING COLD POOL FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO N-CNTRL TX. THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   WAS SITUATED OVER FANNIN AND HUNT COUNTIES TX AS OF 0430Z. BASED ON
   04Z MESOANALYSIS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS SECTION OF THE QLCS HAS OR
   IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERTAKING THE FRONT AND APPARENT MESOLOW INVOF
   PRX. THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REMAINS RELATIVELY
   WARM AND QUITE MOIST WITH AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY.
   GIVEN AN OBSERVED ELY MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM OF ABOUT 35 KT...AT
   LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AS
   IT CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE AREA.

   SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCUR...A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
   CONSIDERED.

   ..MEAD/BROYLES.. 10/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33349523 33639509 33919501 33989453 33859404 33709364
               33499345 33219351 32909365 32669394 32649436 32779488
               32939517 33349523 

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Page last modified: October 11, 2014
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