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Mesoscale Discussion 1850
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1850
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA/GA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111857Z - 112100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   DEVELOP AMID SCATTERED STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND CG LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST
   SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG REMNANT CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN GA TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER NRN NC. WARM
   SECTOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 80S...LIKELY
   YIELDING MODEST BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AMID POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PERVASIVE W/SWLY SURFACE WINDS AND NEARLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO
   STRONGER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF 35-45 KT MID-LEVEL
   WINDS PER GSP/FCX VWP DATA MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WITH TIME...MERGING OF CELLS INTO MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS MIGHT YIELD ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AMID STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES.

   ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 10/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33918382 35088200 35788061 36307876 36227762 35987744
               35377785 34917862 33988024 33468159 33248246 33298353
               33318420 33558450 33918382 

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Page last modified: October 11, 2014
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