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Mesoscale Discussion 1851
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE SRN HIGH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121927Z - 122130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY
   NUMEROUS HIGH-BASED STORMS SPREADING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
   EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 996 MB CYCLONE NEAR THE
   OK PANHANDLE/SW KS BORDER...WITH A DRYLINE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
   ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES S/SW ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TO THE
   LOWER PECOS VALLEY. STORMS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS TO THE
   W OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS SERN CO INTO N-CNTRL NM WITHIN A
   SWATH OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE POTENT
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SLIDING S/SE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
   INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT S/SE IN A
   SIMILAR MANNER THROUGH EARLY EVENING...LIKELY REMAINING DISPLACED S
   FROM THE HIGH-BASED TSTMS. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATELY STRONG 700-500
   MB W/SWLYS AMIDST INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
   35-50 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD FOSTER STRONG TO
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH SUCH SCANT BUOYANCY...UPDRAFTS
   SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SKELETAL AND SEVERE GUST OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE
   TOO SPORADIC TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE W OF THE DRYLINE.

   ..GRAMS/CARBIN.. 10/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36860427 37120347 37200209 37090105 36350063 34940036
               34520057 34300165 34260278 34470405 34760538 35120589
               36050584 36670511 36860427 

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Page last modified: October 12, 2014
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