Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1852
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1852 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LA...MS...NRN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121930Z - 122200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BROAD AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ERN TN WILL
   EXPERIENCE THE RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   WHILE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
   ISSUANCE OF A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A NWD-RETREATING
   BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD FROM CNTRL LA TO NERN MS...WITH THE
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO NORTH GA AS A STATIONARY FRONT. DIURNAL
   HEATING HAS YIELDED MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG S OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE UPPER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST AND
   VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS DEEPENING PBL-CONVERGENCE-
   MANIFESTED CLOUD BANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM/INTENSIFY FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH
   ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING. MEANWHILE...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL CLUSTER OVER NRN AL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD...PERHAPS
   DEVELOPING FARTHER N INTO ERN TN TO THE N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   IN A LESS-BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...VWPS
   INDICATE 30-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL OFFER SUFFICIENT
   DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELL STORMS WITH STRONG TO PERHAPS
   VERY LOCALLY/SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL COULD
   OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE...INCIPIENT CORES. ALSO...A WEAK/BRIEF
   TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
   FRONT...WHERE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS ARE ENHANCING 0-1-KM SRH.
   HOWEVER...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WEAK DEEP ASCENT...AND WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALL GREATLY MITIGATE ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 10/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...
   LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34208671 34728596 36268583 36568512 36088463 34388454
               33358570 32908779 31988949 30859262 30849334 31649343
               32289319 33059128 33449048 34158911 34258821 34208671 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 12, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities