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Mesoscale Discussion 1853
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLE...WRN OK...NW TX...EXTREME SW
   KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 122009Z - 122145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INITIALLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL POSE A
   RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME
   WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 996 MB CYCLONE NEAR KLBL
   WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND LOW ROLLING
   PLAINS TO THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE REMAIN LOW /GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S/ N OF THE TX BIG
   COUNTRY SUPPORTING ONLY MEAGER BUOYANCY. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCED ASCENT WILL
   AID IN INITIALLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECOMING
   WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR
   HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. THIS
   SHOULD TRANSITION TO A PREDOMINANT WIND RISK LATER IN THE EVENING AS
   A QLCS FORMS OVER WRN OK INTO NW TX.

   ..GRAMS/CARBIN.. 10/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37160115 37410102 37509999 37279857 36969814 36119783
               34929779 33479843 33209875 33179952 33250000 33440047
               34570026 35820036 36890096 37160115 

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Page last modified: October 12, 2014
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