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Mesoscale Discussion 1854
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122050Z - 122215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SERN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT
   BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSES INDICATE THE NWD ADVANCE OF HIGHER THETA-E
   AIR S OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED NE/SW ABOUT 90-120 MILES INLAND FROM
   THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
   ASSOCIATED WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WITH RESULTANT INTENSE
   UPDRAFTS REVEALED BY 9-KM CAPPI DATA IN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY.
   THIS CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND AS PBL CIRCULATIONS
   DIURNALLY DEEPEN AMIDST WEAK CAPPING. A MODESTLY VEERING WIND
   PROFILE BELOW 3 KM AGL AND 30 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE PER
   THE HGX VWP SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. AN
   ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF SVR WIND/HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH
   THE STRONG-SFC-WIND POTENTIAL ENHANCED BY 1.7-1.8-INCH PW /PER GPS
   DATA/ FAVORING WATER LOADING. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
   ASCENT...AND THE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WILL LIMIT ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 10/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29219700 30149667 31449485 31469384 30509373 29319567
               29039650 29219700 

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Page last modified: October 12, 2014
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