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Mesoscale Discussion 1855
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0539 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 122239Z - 130015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
   THIS EVENING. SHOULD INITIATION OCCUR...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
   SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL
   SSWWD TO W OF ABI TO W OF 6R6. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ATTENDANT TO THE POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN
   ROCKIES HAS FOSTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN THE DEEPLY MIXED
   STEEP-LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT W OF THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR MAF NEWD TO
   JUST NW OF ABI. LATEST RAP-BASED ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE AIR MASS
   E OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY IS
   VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
   RANGE.

   RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...PERHAPS
   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DRIFTS E AND BECOMES
   ROOTED IN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
   UNFOLD...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KT OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   IN THE EVENT EARLY EVENING STORMS DO NOT MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
   DRYLINE...TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IS
   LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST NRN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN
   THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

   ..MEAD.. 10/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   31670051 32510051 33080032 33299999 33369954 33299888
               32889837 32219842 31759853 31349870 30939915 30789981
               31080036 31670051 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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