Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1856
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1856 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0551 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS / NERN OK INTO S-CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 122251Z - 130045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS
   EVENING.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
   AROUND 13/01Z.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A VERY
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIVING SEWD ACROSS
   N-CNTRL NM AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TX S PLAINS
   VICINITY BY 13/04Z.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN THE
   FORM OF DCVA ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL RAPIDLY
   INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER THE CNTRL THIRD OF OK.  LOW-LEVEL MASS
   RESPONSE WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AS A 50 KT SLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY 13/03Z AIDING IN
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.

   SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
   LOWER 50S OVER WRN OK TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER FAR
   S-CNTRL OK INTO ERN OK.  A DRYLINE IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE S OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER FAR NWRN OK.  A
   PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING EWD /35-40 MPH/ ACROSS CNTRL
   PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  

   STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SERVE TO ORGANIZE STORMS WHILE THE
   ADVECTION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE REGION FROM THE W
   WILL AID IN BOTH UPDRAFT VIGOR AND HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE MORE
   DISCRETE STORMS OR POWERFUL UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SQUALL LINE. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE RISING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AS
   DEWPOINTS RISE THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S S OF I-40
   PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER THE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE-1 KM
   LAYER BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
   RISK...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER SERN OK WHERE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL BE AVAILABLE.  THE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL INCLUDE THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.  AS
   THE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SLAB-LIKE FRONTAL FORCING IMPINGE
   UPON WRN-CNTRL OK...A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO A FORCED SQUALL
   LINE CAPABLE OF ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH
   LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER CORES AS WELL.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34049828 35649827 37019781 37669627 37329490 36629468
               35869502 34789589 34069676 33899768 34049828 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 13, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities