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Mesoscale Discussion 1857
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE / TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS / WRN-NWRN
   OK / FAR S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528...

   VALID 122337Z - 130030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHEST OVER
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH CONVECTION NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC AND
   POLAR COLD FRONTS OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND TX LOW ROLLING
   PLAINS.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A TRIPLE POINT
   AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE WITH AN ATTENDANT
   DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD.  A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT IS MOVING
   ESEWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND THE TX S PLAINS. 
   MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT OF POLAR ORIGINS IS BISECTING THE NW AND SE
   HALVES OF THE TX PANHANDLE.  A QLCS-LIKE STRUCTURE HAS RECENT
   DEVELOPED ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE DRAPING SWWD INTO THE TX S PLAINS.  MULTIPLE WEST TX
   MESONET SITES HAVE RECORDED 55-65 MPH GUSTS OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
   PASSAGE OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION.  AS THE LINEAR BAND OF
   STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH ESEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONT...THE
   CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH A THERMAL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR THE
   CAPROCK E OF LBB NNEWD TOWARDS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE.  THE STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
   WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH
   THE CONVECTIVE LINE.  

   FARTHER E OVER WRN OK AND FAR S-CNTRL KS...A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY
   SEVERE STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL/DMGG WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..SMITH.. 10/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36250057 37249951 37239881 36879823 36419818 35819826
               33800024 33830124 34130175 34780171 35390129 36250057 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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