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Mesoscale Discussion 1858
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0804 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NW MS...SW TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 130104Z - 130230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
   NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
   REMAIN LIMITED. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS SE AR AND NE LA WILL
   CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE N/NE TONIGHT. THIS CLUSTER WILL BE
   MAINTAINED ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF AN INCREASING S/SWLY LLJ AND
   STRONGER WAA ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD DIGGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
   OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...WEAK TO MODERATE
   SBCINH WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN ELEVATED. 00Z LZK RAOB INDICATED MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM AND 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -11 DEG
   C...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL CAPPING...BUT
   SOME GUSTY/SUB-SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAST STORM MOTION
   AND HIGH PW. GIVEN MARGINAL/EXPECTED LOW-END NATURE OF THE THREAT A
   WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32509128 32789206 33209263 33529276 33859259 34539177
               35499108 35779049 35829006 35788914 35528881 35038881
               33998933 33438967 32789034 32499088 32509128 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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