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Mesoscale Discussion 1859
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0947 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S-CNTRL KS / N-CNTRL INTO SWRN OK / WRN N-CNTRL
   TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528...529...530...

   VALID 130247Z - 130345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   528...529...530...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR 50-70 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
   AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN AND INTO CNTRL OK
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CONVECTIVE LINE TRACKS EWD THROUGH
   THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES HAS
   SHOWN A FAIRLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS
   SHOWN IN THE OVERALL DEEPENING OF REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE IN HEIGHT
   AND MAGNITUDE.  RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
   UNDERWAY ACROSS N-CNTRL TX INTO OK WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER 60S
   DEWPOINTS E OF THE QLCS FROM THE RED RIVER NWD TO I-40.  02Z
   SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT APPROXIMATELY
   25 MI TO THE W OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE QLCS GUST FRONT.  AN
   INVERTED TROUGH EVIDENT BY A SURFACE WIND SHIFT APPEARS TO LARGELY
   BE PARALLELING THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR OKC NEWD TO TUL.  

   AS THE INTENSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE
   SRN PLAINS...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAXIMIZE TONIGHT COINCIDENT
   WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING EVENTUALLY REACHING THE W EDGE OF THE WARM
   SECTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS A RESULT...THE SQUALL LINE WILL
   LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND THE PROPENSITY FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   MAINTAINED OR INCREASE...ESPECIALLY INVOF ANY DEEPER CORES OR WITH
   MESOVORTICES THAT DEVELOP AS THE LINE MATURES NEAR AND S OF THE
   INVERTED TROUGH OVER CNTRL OK.

   FARTHER S OVER WRN N-CNTRL TX...EXPECTING THE GRADUAL ZIPPERING SWD
   OF THE QLCS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE
   PREDOMINATE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...THE STRONG SLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT THE NOTION
   FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AND POSE PRIMARILY A LARGE
   HAIL THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.  

   THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS DUE IN
   PART TO ONLY LOWER-MID 50S DEWPOINTS AND A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   RESIDING IN THIS REGION.  PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
   POSE A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..SMITH.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33230101 34369933 35799855 36979904 37449871 37429725
               36029705 34099777 32449969 32430087 33230101 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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