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Mesoscale Discussion 1860
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1017 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 130317Z - 130415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE
   HAIL...SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...WILL
   INCREASE TONIGHT AS STORMS MOVE FROM THE WEST AND INTO THE AREA.  A
   CONVECTIVE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INTENSIFYING OVER THE
   TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITHIN A QLCS WITH SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS CLUSTERED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.  A COLD FRONT WILL MERGE
   WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND ACCELERATE
   ESEWD ACROSS N-CNTRL TX TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE QLCS WILL
   BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSING A WIND DAMAGE HAZARD.  

   THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG LLJ/WAA REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LENDS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SURFACE-BASED
   SUPERCELL THREAT AND ASSOCIATED ALL SEVERE HAZARDS LATE TONIGHT. 
   SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS SHOW THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR OVER THE
   UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN HAS GRADUALLY MOVED NNWWD UP THE I-45
   CORRIDOR...WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NEAR AND S OF THE METROPLEX. 
   INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AN ADEQUATELY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AID IN AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
   CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK IF AN APPRECIABLY LARGE AMOUNT OF
   SBCINH CAN BE OVERCOME.  NONETHELESS...AT LEAST THE WIND
   DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
   TONIGHT.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32359858 33319844 33769775 33899576 33459532 32659557
               31949689 31959815 32359858 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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