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Mesoscale Discussion 1861
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL MS AND NWRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 130446Z - 130615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
   REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROBUST SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
   THE SRN STREAM MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
   TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION.  AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS
   BEEN OBSERVED BY THE KDGX VAD FROM 00Z THROUGH PRESENT TIME AS WINDS
   HAVE STRENGTHENED FROM 30 TO 50 KT AROUND 4KM AGL.  RADAR MOSAIC
   SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
   LARGE CONVECTIVE SHIELD OVER NRN MS AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PORTIONS
   OF AL AND TN.  04Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER CNTRL MS TO THE INFLOW
   SIDE OF THE UPDRAFTS ON THE S-SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOW
   TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEG F.  MODIFYING THE 00Z
   JAN RAOB SUGGESTS AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
   VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT.  AS SUCH...THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME SUPERCELLS IS NOT
   OUT OF THE QUESTION.  WHILE NOT LIKELY AT PRESENT TIME...IF FURTHER
   STORM INTENSIFICATION BECOMES APPARENT...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
   CONSIDERED.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34518803 34308795 33828812 33298976 33169066 33249088
               33589104 34638869 34518803 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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