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Mesoscale Discussion 1862
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MD 1862 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1862
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK / FAR SERN KS / FAR SWRN MO / WRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 130500Z - 130630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE POSING PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE RISK WILL
   MOVE INTO ERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A QLCS MOVING EWD AROUND 30 KT
   ACROSS CNTRL OK.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO
   DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY
   MAINTAIN THIS QLCS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO ERN OK.  STRONG TO LOWER-END
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  CURRENT
   EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE QLCS APPROACHING THE ERN EDGE OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530 BY THE 0630Z TIMEFRAME.  AS A RESULT...A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY
   0600Z-0630Z.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34109598 36299578 37029565 37269476 36919426 35749382
               34469437 34009482 33989539 34109598 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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