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Mesoscale Discussion 1863
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1863
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529...530...532...

   VALID 130659Z - 130830Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   529...530...532...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PRIMARILY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ERN HALF OF OK /FROM
   WW 529 INTO WW 532/...AND SSEWD ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
   VALLEY PORTIONS OF TX.  COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY LINE OF
   STORMS CAN BE REMOVED FROM THE RESPECTIVE WATCHES.  MEANWHILE...THE
   SEVERE THREAT IS ADVANCING INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY...SUCH THAT WFO
   SJT HAS EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF WW 530.

   GIVEN THE FORWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TSTMS...WW 529 SHOULD BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED BY 08Z...WHILE SOME OF THE COUNTIES
   ADDED TO WW 530 MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TEMPORALLY BEYOND 08Z.

   DISCUSSION...AT 620Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AN EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
   POTENTIAL...EXTENDING FROM THE ERN EXTENT OF WW 529...THEN SSWWD
   THROUGH NORTH TX /IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF TORNADO WATCH 531/...AND
   TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE SERN PART OF WW 530 AND TO THE N AND NW OF
   KSGT. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN AMPLIFYING...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL
   IMAGERY.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF
   DEEP-LAYER SSWLY WINDS FROM CENTRAL AND EAST TX INTO ERN OK/WRN AR. 
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE
   STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ /UP TO 50-60 KT/ WILL MAINTAIN A QLCS. 
   FURTHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/INCREASING THETA-E AND SUBSEQUENT
   DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
   PARCELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER-MOMENTUM AIR TO REACH THE
   SURFACE AS THE TSTMS ADVANCE EWD/SEWD.  

   TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE N-S ORIENTED LINE
   SEGMENTS IN COAL/ATOKA COUNTIES OK AND COOKE/DENTON COUNTIES TX WERE
   TRACKING EWD AT 44 KT WHILE A STORM MOVING EWD THROUGH NWRN COLEMAN
   AND CALLAHAN COUNTIES TX HAD A SPEED NEAR 40 KT.  THIS ACTIVITY AND
   SIMILAR N-S LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD HAVE AN INCREASING SEVERE WIND
   THREAT AT THE SURFACE...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING
   DESTABILIZATION/FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT.

   ..PETERS.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...EWX...
   SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31680112 32549928 33239784 34569665 35429617 37499638
               37609607 37019579 37189363 37089212 34929189 33849249
               34009404 34339496 33929519 33789606 32629716 32109844
               30909846 31000130 31680112 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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