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Mesoscale Discussion 1864
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...NRN AND EAST TX / FAR SERN OK
   / SWRN AR AND NWRN LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 531...

   VALID 130743Z - 130915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 531 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
   AND A FEW TORNADOES...WILL PERSIST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
   VALID PORTION OF WW 531...WHILE COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY
   LINE OF STORMS CAN BE REMOVED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY.  
    
   A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO THE EAST OF WW 531 BY 09Z.

   DISCUSSION...AT 740Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRIMARY LINE OF
   STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN OK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND
   TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX TO THE CONCHO
   VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE IN NORTH TX /FANNIN AND
   HUNT COUNTIES/ A SECOND LINE OF STORMS HAD DEVELOPED...AND A
   SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSISTED FROM IN VICINITY OF WACO SWWD
   TO CORYELL COUNTY.  TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES INDICATED THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR WAS DESTABILIZING
   AS EXPECTED WITHIN MOISTURE RETURN ALONG A STRENGTHENING SSWLY
   LLJ...AHEAD OF THE DIGGING/AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   THE INCREASE IN THETA-E AND RISING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE ERN
   PART OF WW 531 INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR FURTHER REPRESENT ONGOING
   DESTABILIZATION WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

   AS THE STRENGTHENING LLJ SHIFTS EWD INTO EAST TX...ERN OK...NWRN LA
   AND AR THROUGH 12-15Z...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE
   WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 PERSISTING FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM
   ROTATION AND INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
   AND EARLY MORNING.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31049853 32149878 32549824 33099684 33969624 34099533
               34489480 34069375 33669324 33309305 32819311 32199335
               31759391 31139501 30729634 30669704 31049853 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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