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Mesoscale Discussion 1865
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1865
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TX...NRN LA...SRN AND ERN
   AR...WRN MS...WRN TN...AND MO BOOTHEEL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 533...

   VALID 131134Z - 131300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 533 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 533...WHILE THE
   THREAT ACROSS WW 531 HAD GREATLY DIMINISHED SUCH THAT THIS LATTER
   TORNADO WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY.  A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
   BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REST OF NRN LA INTO ERN AR...WRN/NRN MS...WRN
   TN...AND THE MO BOOTHEEL.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A
   SSW-NNE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM BRAZOS TO SMITH
   COUNTIES TX WHERE IT INTERSECTED THE PRIMARY EWD MOVING LINE OF
   STORMS...WHICH THEN EXTENDED NWD THROUGH NERN TX TO WRN AR.  THE
   STORMS EXTENDING SWWD FROM SMITH COUNTY TX TO IN VICINITY OF KIMBLE
   COUNTY TX HAD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AS THEIR ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY MOVED TO THE SSE.

   MEANWHILE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR FROM EAST TX AND WRN LA THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN AR AND WRN
   MS.  THIS COMBINED WITH A NWD TRANSPORT OF RICH MOISTURE /SURFACE
   DEW POINTS TO AROUND 70 NOW INTO THE SRN AR AND CENTRAL MS/ IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.  THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING
   RESULTING IN WEAKENING SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.  FURTHER
   STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER SSWLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN THE EWD MOVING
   QLCS AS THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS OK WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
   INTO THE DISCUSSION AREAS AND LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD AID IN WEAKENING
   ANY REMAINING EARLY DAY CAPPING FOR AN INCREASING TREND FOR
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  GIVEN THIS FACTOR AND HIGH THETA-E AIR/LOW
   LCLS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR... A TORNADO THREAT
   CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO WATCH VERSUS A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31549694 31889555 32499446 33859386 34249278 35109228
               36369164 36449054 36118906 34098937 32429066 32049125
               31239218 30449442 30079580 30259687 30889781 31099757
               31549694 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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