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Mesoscale Discussion 1867
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1867
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA....AND WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131305Z - 131500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING OR BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON FROM SERN MO TO SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA AND WRN KY.  THE
   GREATER WW ISSUANCE POTENTIAL MAY BE WITH EWD EXTENT.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN THE NRN EXTENT OF A QLCS MOVING INTO NORTH
   CENTRAL AR WERE TRACKING NEWD AT 35-40 KT.  EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
   EXISTS OVER SERN MO...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ONGOING
   STORMS. HOWEVER...A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO
   EXIST INTO SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA AND WRN KY WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS
   IN CLOUDS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  

   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY COMBINED WITH AN
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAT WOULD SUPPORT BOTH QLCS STRUCTURE
   AND SUPERCELLS...IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
   LINE OF STORMS.  THUS...THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR NEW WATCH
   POTENTIAL WITH E/NEWD EXTENT.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36499213 37429194 37979049 38398944 38458771 38328741
               37718716 37028723 36668743 36528827 36499213 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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