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Mesoscale Discussion 1868
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN LA...WRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 534...

   VALID 131520Z - 131715Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 534 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 534.
   THE THREAT IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO EXTEND N OF THE WATCH THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH AN ADDITIONAL WATCH POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH...FROM
   SERN MO ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO NWRN LA...WITH MORE OF AN
   UNDERCUTTING OUTFLOW SURGE INTO SERN TX. 

   INSPECTION OF VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION INDICATE
   SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT
   UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY. THE STRONGEST RADAR SIGNATURES
   THROUGH MID MORNING HAVE EXTENDED FROM NRN LA INTO E CNTRL AR IN
   PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS.

   SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   THETA-E ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING NWD INTO THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY. SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED AHEAD
   OF THE PRIMARY LINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE GIVEN THE
   MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW.

   THE PRESENCE OF A HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS
   AND FORCING ALONG THE QLCS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CELLS
   AHEAD OF THE LINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING SUGGESTS
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
   COVERAGE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SGF...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   36538897 31249122 31239411 31569398 31889349 33509227
               34849189 36609162 36538897 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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