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Mesoscale Discussion 1869
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...FAR ERN AR...MS...WRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131652Z - 131845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 534 WITH A NEW
   TORNADO WATCH LIKELY ACROSS MS AND WRN TN.

   DISCUSSION...CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE HAVE BECOME
   SUPERCELLS ACROSS FAR ERN AR AND NERN LA...WITH MODERATELY-STRONG
   MESOCYCLONES NOTED ON RADAR. HODOGRAPHS PER NEIGHBORHOOD VAD WIND
   PROFILES INDICATE STRONGLY-FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   TORNADOES.

   THESE LEADING CELLS FORMED ON A CONFLUENCE BAND WITH HISTORY
   EXTENDING MORE THAN A DAY BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
   WHILE NO OTHER SIMILAR CONFLUENCE BANDS ARE NOTED...CONTINUED
   HEATING AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   WARM-SECTOR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE QLCS...WITH CONDITIONAL TORNADO
   THREAT.

   IN ADDITION...THE LARGE CELL ACROSS NERN LA REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH
   ASSOCIATED MESO-LOW...AND MAY HAVE FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH
   EXISTING CONFLUENCE AXIS TO THE E.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31589159 31929212 32369201 33339146 34549096 35389081
               36289072 36449055 36478985 36428849 36238818 35878812
               34868812 33028863 31868969 31609070 31589159 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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