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Mesoscale Discussion 1870
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...A SMALL PART OF SWRN IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 535...

   VALID 131659Z - 131800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 535 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM SVR RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SERN MO TO THE MS RIVER NEAR/NE OF FARMINGTON MO.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS INDICATE
   CONVECTIVE BANDS BUILDING NNEWD INTO SERN MO FROM THE MID-SOUTH. AN
   ARC OF HIGHER-REFLECTIVITY CORES AND CORRESPONDING UPTICK IN CG
   LIGHTNING STRIKES EXTENDS FROM IRON TO WAYNE COUNTY MO...AND WILL
   CONTINUE SPREADING NNEWD/NEWD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EVOLVING OVER
   NERN AR WILL ALSO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MO IN THE SHORT
   TERM. THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION HAS OUTRUN SFC PRESSURE FALL
   RATES OF 2-4 MB PER 2 HOURS CONFINED TO NRN MO. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
   ISALLOBARIC FLOW COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE A FEED OF
   MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY TO SUPPORT MLCAPE
   AROUND 250-500 J/KG. DESPITE THE PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY...NEIGHBORHOOD
   VWPS SAMPLE 50-60 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM AGL PROMOTING AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR CAPABLE OF ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS/CONVECTIVE
   MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. WITH VERY MODEST DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH THE
   PRE-CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY AND CONTINUED WAA...THE RISK FOR DMGG
   WINDS/TORNADOES MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO INTO
   SWRN IL IN THE SHORT-TERM.

   ..COHEN.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

   LAT...LON   36639044 37479068 38179073 38249006 37708969 36678979
               36639044 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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