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Mesoscale Discussion 1871
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1213 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AL...SWRN GA...THE FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131713Z - 131915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE WW
   ISSUANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NWD FROM THE
   REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE GULF...WITH
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POTENTIALLY BLOSSOMING FROM
   SEA-BREEZE-BOUNDARY-ENHANCED AGITATED CU E OF MOBILE BAY. THE
   PRESENCE OF 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE MOIST/PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR
   MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED
   DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS 20-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL
   FLOW OFFERS SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-SHEAR IN THE SHORT
   TERM SHOULD KEEP ANY SVR-TSTM RISK LIMITED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30848627 30998733 31648741 32258680 32208578 31488491
               29878466 30848627 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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