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Mesoscale Discussion 1873
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IL...SERN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 535...

   VALID 131833Z - 131930Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 535 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THROUGH 2000Z...THE GREATEST SVR RISK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
   OF SRN IL AND SERN MO...WHERE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES REMAIN
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE NRN EXTENT OF AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE ALONG THE MS
   RIVER HAS BUILT NNEWD INTO SERN MO...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   NNEWD IN THE SHORT TERM WHILE THE OVERALL LINE TRANSLATES EWD.
   PADUCAH BASE-REFLECTIVITY TRENDS SUGGEST LEWP STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN
   THE QLCS. RELATED MESOVORTICES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE
   THE RISK FOR DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES...AS NEIGHBORHOOD VWPS SAMPLE
   50 KT OF 1-KM-AGL FLOW STRONGLY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/CONVECTIVE
   MOMENTUM TRANSPORT DESPITE A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY. THE SQUALL LINE IS
   MORE SEGMENTED FARTHER N INTO SWRN IL...THOUGH VERY MODEST DIURNAL
   HEATING AND WAA AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
   TORNADO RISK.

   ..COHEN.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   36589017 37499014 37969001 39028982 39098931 38188899
               37188910 36608932 36589017 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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