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Mesoscale Discussion 1874
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN MS...SWRN TN...CNTRL AND NWRN
   AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 537...

   VALID 131922Z - 132115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 537 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
   MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN MS...SWRN TN...AND PERHAPS INTO AL.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE MS RIVER WHERE
   HEATING HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. THIS LINE WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. IN
   ADDITION...ISOLATED CELLS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...WITH
   A STRONG PROPENSITY TO BECOME SUPERCELLS. THESE NWD-MOVING CELLS ARE
   IN A REGION OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST SURFACE
   ANALYSIS. ALSO...THE SHEAR PROFILES INTENSIFY WITH NWD EXTENT.
   THEREFORE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE CELLS COULD STRENGTHEN
   AND BECOME TORNADIC WITH EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 N OF
   JACKSON MS.

   TO THE E...A BATCH OF CELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NWD INTO CNTRL
   AL. THE RAPID MOTION SUGGESTS IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR SOME OF THESE
   STORMS TO CHANGE CHARACTER/SLOW DOWN IN SPEED AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
   MORE FAVORABLE SR FLOW. THE WRN-MOST CELLS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
   AT BECOMING SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE INTO A BETTER ENVIRONMENT.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34148645 33748624 33238622 32858653 32638724 32518812
               32378904 32069003 31969065 32099099 32359074 32809050
               33339037 33879020 34478995 34788983 35618959 35758870
               35268741 34548669 34148645 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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