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Mesoscale Discussion 1875
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   INDIANA...CENTRAL/WESTERN KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131954Z - 132200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER
   OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE ONGOING...NEARLY CONTINUOUS SQUALL LINE IS CROSSING
   THE MS RIVER VICINITY...BUILDING NNEWD WITH TIME...WITH 25-30 KT OF
   QLCS-ZONAL-TRANSLATIONAL MOTION. WHILE THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE
   HAS BECOME LARGELY PARALLEL TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS...THE EWD
   TRANSLATION OF A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO CONTINUED EWD TRANSLATION OF THE SQUALL LINE INTO THE EVENING.
   STRONG POLEWARD MASS FLUXES CONTINUE ENCOURAGING SUFFICIENT
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUXES -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 
   60S -- FOR MLCAPE AROUND 250-750 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCE. EARLIER POCKETS OF INSOLATION PER
   VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE ALSO LOCALLY BOLSTERED BUOYANCY. INTENSE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH 50 KT OF 1-KM-AGL FLOW SAMPLED BY
   NEIGHBORHOOD VWPS SUGGEST THAT DYNAMIC PERTURBATION PRESSURE
   GRADIENT FORCES ATTENDANT TO THE CONVECTION WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY
   UPDRAFTS TO OFFSET THE MARGINAL BUOYANCY. FURTHERMORE...THIS SHEAR
   WILL LEND SUPPORT FOR QLCS-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES TO PRODUCE DMGG
   WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   36878737 38088773 39768715 39838625 38848552 36978593
               36878737 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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