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Mesoscale Discussion 1877
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1877
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 539...

   VALID 132042Z - 132215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 539 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADOES CONTINUES
   ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 539.

   DISCUSSION...THE NRN EXTENT OF CONVECTION EVOLVING WITHIN THE SQUALL
   LINE ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1876 WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC OBSERVATIONS
   INDICATE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 60S DURING THE PAST COUPLE
   OF HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MINIMAL -- ALBEIT NON-ZERO -- BUOYANCY TO
   EXIST ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH AREA. A STRONG LLJ CONTINUES TO
   SUPPORT SOME INFLUX OF GREATER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA.
   THIS MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO CONTINUE
   BUILDING NNEWD ON A SEGMENTED BASIS...PERHAPS AS FAR N AS PARTS OF
   NERN IL WHERE SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3 MB PER 2 HOURS ARE NOTED.
   THE ILX VWP SAMPLES VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH AROUND 40-45
   KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PROVIDED
   CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT PROCESSES ENHANCED IN ANY DEEPER 
   CORES -- ESPECIALLY THOSE PRODUCING LIGHTNING.

   ..COHEN.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   38798965 41148960 41108751 38808762 38798965 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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