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Mesoscale Discussion 1878
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1878
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE / SRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 132146Z - 132315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH THE THIS THREAT PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A PSUEDO
   MARITIME WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE WHICH IS
   EFFECTIVELY DELINEATING THE MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR TO THE W /LOWER
   70S DEWPOINTS/ AND MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS E.  THE KEVX VAD SHOWS A
   LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILE CONTRIBUTING TO A CLOCKWISE-CURVED
   HODOGRAPH.  ALTHOUGH 1-6 KM AGL FLOW IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER ACROSS
   THE FL PANHANDLE COMPARED TO FARTHER W OVER SRN MS...THE GRADUAL
   STRENGTHENING OF THE SRN FRINGE OF THE LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.  GIVEN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS NEAR AND W OF THE MARITIME FRONT...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
   INCREASE ACROSS SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WITH TIME.  
   AS OF 2120Z...AN APPARENT TORNADO WAS REMOTELY SENSED VIA THE KTLH
   RADAR OVER CALHOUN COUNTY FL.  ALTHOUGH THIS SUPERCELL TORNADO
   THREAT APPEARS ISOLD AT THIS TIME OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WILL
   MONITOR TRENDS IF THIS THREAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SHORT
   TERM.  A TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY EARLY EVENING
   TO ADDRESS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
   THE W.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31588846 32048717 31918610 31698548 30158488 29728496
               30018556 30378670 30258824 31588846 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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