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Mesoscale Discussion 1879
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN / NERN MS / NWRN AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 537...540...

   VALID 132227Z - 132330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 537...540...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE
   NEXT 30-60 MINUTES BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE OVERTAKES THE DISCRETE AND
   POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE.

   DISCUSSION...22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MARITIME
   WARM FRONT DRAPED SSE TO NNW FROM NERN AL THROUGH MIDDLE TN.  A
   SEVERE WIND-PRODUCING QLCS IS LOCATED FROM THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY
   NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER INTO FAR NERN MS.  IN BETWEEN THE TWO
   FEATURES...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS 1 TO 1.5 MB PER HOUR HAVE BEEN
   NOTED WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NWRN AL INTO MIDDLE
   TN.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONE ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING LINE.  A CLUSTER OF NWD-MOVING STORMS MOVING FROM AL
   INTO SRN MIDDLE TN WILL LIKELY PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO THE AIR MASS
   QUALITY VIA CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING INFLUENCES. 
   NONETHELESS...SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM THE AL/MS BORDER
   INTO MIDDLE TN WILL POSE A TORNADO RISK...IN ADDITION TO
   STRAIGHT-LINE DMGG WINDS WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

   ..SMITH.. 10/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33848874 36588791 36368707 33608794 33848874 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2014
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