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Mesoscale Discussion 1882
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 140026Z - 140200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
   INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
   WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE N/NE INTO
   NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EVIDENT IN 00Z MESOANALYSIS WHERE
   MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 250 J/KG AND INCREASING INHIBITION WERE
   NOTED. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT SEVERE
   THREAT...THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW AND MIDLEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL
   LIKELY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BOTH DUE TO GRADIENT WINDS
   AS WELL AS DUE TO ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT BY MODEST DOWNDRAFTS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
   REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 10/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   42598648 42878603 42838539 42698473 42288461 41758465
               41028473 40658487 40438538 40538638 40578703 41248704
               41738694 42598648 

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Page last modified: October 14, 2014
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