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Mesoscale Discussion 1885
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1885
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF AL / W-CNTRL AND NWRN GA / SERN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 140157Z - 140400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT COINCIDENT
   WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL LINE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS
   THE REGION.  A LOW RISK FOR A TORNADO WILL EXIST TOO GIVEN THE MOIST
   AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

   DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID 60S DEWPOINTS OVER ERN
   AL AND W-CNTRL GA NWD INTO SERN PORTIONS OF TN.  FARTHER S OVER SERN
   AL...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS NEAR 70
   DEG F HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING NWD THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A
   LOWER-LATITUDE SPEED MAX EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING
   NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
   LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION AND EJECT ENEWD
   TO MS BY LATE TONIGHT.  LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED
   TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA. 
   WHILE THE 14/00Z FFC RAOB EXHIBITED RATHER POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING
   RATIO 11.4 G PER KG/...GREATER BUOYANCY --REFERENCE 00Z BMX RAOB--
   PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SLOWLY
   MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W AND S.  EXPECTING THE CONTINUED EWD
   MOVEMENT OF THE QLCS OVER AL TO REACH THE ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH
   540 BY THE 0400Z-0500Z TIMEFRAME.  THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
   STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE NOT ONLY A DAMAGING WIND GUST
   THREAT...BUT ALSO SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32948644 35348551 35768485 35518445 35078435 33368416
               31968458 31848501 31858624 32278672 32948644 

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Page last modified: October 14, 2014
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