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Mesoscale Discussion 1886
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN KY / E-CNTRL TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 140341Z - 140445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /45-55 MPH/ ARE
   POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING QLCS.  IT APPEARS PROBABLE
   THAT THE QLCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FURTHER IN INTENSITY AS IT
   MOVES INTO ERN KY/TN WITH THE OVERALL THREAT BECOMING LESS AND
   INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED WITH TIME.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS DURING THE PAST FEW
   HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE STEADY WEAKENING OF THE QLCS ACROSS KY AND TN. 
   7 KM CAPPI RADAR DATA SHOW THE QLCS VOID OF HIGHER
   REFLECTIVITY...SIGNALING WEAKENED UPDRAFTS...FROM THE AL/TN BORDER
   NWD.  LESSENING INSTABILITY AND MORE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   /UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS/ WITH EWD EXTENT ADDITIONALLY
   SUPPORTS THE NOTION THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
   FURTHER.  DESPITE THE MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...STRONG DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN
   THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE QLCS FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS
   AS IT MOVES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN.  GIVEN THE MODESTLY
   MOIST/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A LOCALIZED STRONG TO PERHAPS
   LOW-END SEVERE GUST THREAT MAY CONTINUE BUT THE NEED FOR A NEW
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN DOUBT.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   35508507 35758545 38498554 38808493 38798401 38428355
               35858378 35598425 35508507 

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Page last modified: October 14, 2014
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