MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 705...
   
   VALID 150447Z - 150545Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 705
   CONTINUES.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STORM LOCATED OVER NERN MCCONE/FAR NWRN
   DAWSON COUNTIES TRACKING ENEWD AND SHOULD EXIT WW 705 BETWEEN
   06-0630Z...WHILE STORMS EXTENDING SWWD TO ROSEBUD COUNTY SHOULD
   REACH FAR ERN EXTENT OF THIS WATCH BETWEEN 07-08Z.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER FAR
   ERN MT...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS
   TRACKING ENEWD INTO THIS AREA OF ERN MT.  THIS INSTABILITY ALSO
   EXTENDED INTO WRN/SRN ND AND NRN SD.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT 
   IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.  ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL/NWRN ND OVERNIGHT...
   FURTHER WEAKENING OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION
   SHOULD RESULT IN A WANING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/15/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   LAT...LON   46870785 47710655 49050619 49210445 48900295 47660260
               46630320 45900394 45660597 45580629 45680675 46870785