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Mesoscale Discussion 1890
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MD 1890 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND SCNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141123Z - 141330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STORMS FROM NRN AL THROUGH MIDDLE TN
   AND SCNTRL KY MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SPORADIC STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. HOWEVER...THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...A NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
   FROM NCNTRL AL INTO MIDDLE TN AND SCNTRL KY IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS
   OF A LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A DOWNSTREAM MCS.
   THIS BAND OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED IN RESPONSE TO
   INCREASING DEEP-LAYER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN PORTION OF THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE STRONG
   FORCING AND PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS...OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY THE VERY MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOW
   EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 25000 FT WITH 200-300 J/KG MUCAPE AND
   A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
   LIGHTNING STRIKES. DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE DOWNSTREAM MCS
   AND TIME OF DAY...THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT LIKELY UNDERGO MUCH FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS...SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34828613 36068601 37208601 37468544 36798472 35408509
               34588565 34828613 

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Page last modified: October 14, 2014
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