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Mesoscale Discussion 1897
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 150448Z - 150545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT
   WITH PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE. A
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED CONFLUENCE ZONE HAS BEEN A GENESIS REGION
   FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM NEAR AND NORTH
   OF EWN TO OFF THE COAST WELL SSE OF ILM. RECENT TRENDS IN VOLUMETRIC
   RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF TSTMS FROM BEAUFORT TO
   CARTERET COUNTIES WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT BASED ON THE 00Z MHX SOUNDING. SINCE THAT OBSERVATION
   WAS TAKEN...CURRENT VAD DATA FROM MHX SHOW PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE
   IN DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KT. 

   FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT IN
   RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM INTO THE SERN
   STATES. AS SUCH...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A BRIEF
   TORNADO. A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
   PRECLUDED BY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY. THUS...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..MEAD.. 10/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   34547725 35357738 36097732 36277695 36067653 35377625
               34747634 34487655 34347674 34317695 34547725 

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Page last modified: October 15, 2014
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