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Mesoscale Discussion 1898
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0414 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN NC...CENTRAL/ERN VA...NWRN
   MD...ERN PANHANDLE OF WV.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 150914Z - 151145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY POSE RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS.  A
   SMALL/SHORT-LIVED QLCS TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BARRING DRAMATIC UPWARD
   TREND IN TSTM INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...SVR PROBABILITIES
   MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING IN WHATEVER REMAINS OF
   UNMODIFIED/PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR...ONCE AT LEAST SUBTLE POCKETS
   AND CORRIDORS OF DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTE TO LOW-LEVEL
   DESTABILIZATION.

   DISCUSSION...PLUME OF PRECIP AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION...FROM WRN PA
   SWD ACROSS SC...HAS BEEN EXHIBITING GRADUAL WIDENING DURING PAST
   COUPLE HOURS WITH EXPANSION/FILLING OF TRAILING PRECIP SHIELD. 
   NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL LIFT...OCCASIONALLY CONTAINING
   ENHANCED STRANDS OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...DEMARCATE ERN EDGE OF
   THAT PRECIP BAND AND IS OUTPACING TRAILING COLD FRONT IN MOVING NEWD
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  MEANWHILE...PRECURSORY CONFLUENCE LINE IS
   EVIDENT IN 09Z SFC STREAMLINE ANALYSIS BETWEEN GRANVILLE AND
   COLUMBUS COUNTIES NC....SUPPORTING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
   CONVECTIVE BAND WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS. 

   ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NNEWD TO NEWD INTO ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES...RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE...AND PLUME OF MIDLEVEL DRYING AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP BAND. 
   DRY PLUME IS NOT WELL-EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY  GIVEN
   OVERLYING CIRRUS AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
   EVIDENT IN COMBINATION OF MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND MODEL FCST
   SOUNDINGS.  RELATED ENTRAINMENT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH AMBIENT WEAK
   LAPSE RATES AND SMALL BUOYANCY...SHOULD KEEP RATE OF CONVECTIVE
   GROWTH GRADUAL.  STILL...MLCAPE 200-800 J/KG AND 40-50-KT
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EVIDENT IN WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH
   EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING FROM 150-300 J/KG WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS
   VA...TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY.  THESE MAY REPRESENT EVENT-PEAK SRH
   VALUES FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER...GIVEN PROJECTED WEAKENING AND NWD
   SHIFT OF LLJ THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING. 

   MIDDLE/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY PARALLEL TO
   CORRIDORS OF CONVECTIVE LIFT...SUPPORTING CONTINUED QUASI-LINEAR
   MODE.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL
   SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT COVERAGE...NUMBER AND INTENSIFICATION RATE OF
   ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS AWAY FROM THOSE BANDS.  HOWEVER...ANY
   SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS MAY DEVELOP ROTATION GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
   FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE IN WARM SECTOR.  BRIEF/QLCS MESOVORTICES
   ALSO MAY OCCUR.

   ..EDWARDS/DIAL.. 10/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35367847 37027853 39427888 39587745 38067711 36797676
               36037695 35367847 

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