Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1899
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1899 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MD INTO SERN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151720Z - 151945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT WITH STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NWD FROM MD INTO SERN PA.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STRONG CELL WITH SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL
   DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NWD ALONG A N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY
   WHICH EXTENDS INTO PA AND LINKS WITH AN EXISTING FRONT ACROSS ERN PA
   WHICH CURRENTLY SEPARATES THE MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SE.

   THIS PARTICULAR STORM HAS HAD A PERSISTENT AND BROAD CIRCULATION
   WITH IT...BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY STRONG OR TIGHT PROBABLY DUE TO
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/ACCELERATION. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS
   STRONG ABOVE THE GROUND...MOST OF THE SHEAR IS RELEGATED TO THE
   NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND OTHER CELLS AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   HAVE SHOWN LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR. THEREFORE...ANY WIND/TOR THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED...AND A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39157664 39007677 38987688 39067699 39267696 39617690
               40007679 40347640 40457615 40407593 40137594 39617620
               39157664 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 15, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities