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Mesoscale Discussion 1900
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS IN E-CNTRL
   CA ABOVE 6500 FT

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 010440Z - 010945Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
   MOUNTAINS WITH RATES LOCALLY REACHING 2 INCHES/HOUR DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY ABOVE 6500 FEET.

   DISCUSSION...LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A RECENTLY DEVELOPED BURST OF
   CONVECTION INVOF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY S OF FRESNO -- ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF AN INCOMING BAND OF STRONG...DEEP ASCENT PRECEDING AN
   APPROACHING TROUGH. RELATED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
   OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FURTHER ENCOURAGED
   BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS FOLLOWING UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES ON THE
   WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. TROPOSPHERIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
   THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO ADIABATIC FORCING IN THE
   DCVA/UPSLOPE-FLOW REGIME AND NOCTURNAL DIABATIC SFC-LAYER COOLING.
   AS THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TENDS TOWARD MID-LEVEL
   CONDITIONS OBSERVED BY THE UPSTREAM 00Z OAK RAOB /INDICATING A
   WET-BULB-ZERO HEIGHT AROUND 6825 FT/...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR
   ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY REACH 2
   INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE MOST
   LIKELY TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE 06Z-10Z.

   ..COHEN.. 11/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

   LAT...LON   36911898 38071989 38371997 38391981 38091944 37461891
               36661830 36381829 36411850 36911898 

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Page last modified: November 01, 2014
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