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Mesoscale Discussion 1903
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MD 1903 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CST MON NOV 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NM...WRN TX / TX PANHANDLE...AND
   WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032143Z - 032345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST
   AND/OR LARGE HAIL REPORT.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
   TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC
   COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND WRN TX HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING INTO THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEREFORE...DESPITE MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG HAVE BEEN REALIZED PER
   MESO-ANALYSIS DATA. 

   WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KT WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
   ORGANIZATION /E.G. SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES/ WITH ANY OF THE MORE
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP. CONSIDERING THIS POTENTIAL...AND THE
   POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING DUE TO SOME GREATER
   INSOLATION...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL
   REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

   ..PICCA/MOSIER/MEAD.. 11/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31380584 31470583 32560586 33830446 36230155 36720045
               36969931 36889837 36479826 35699861 34139996 32740142
               32050208 31550263 30760414 30540506 31380584 

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Page last modified: November 03, 2014
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