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Mesoscale Discussion 1904
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CST THU NOV 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...DC...SRN MD...DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061833Z - 062030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY
   DEVELOP WITH A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING E FROM NRN VA.

   DISCUSSION...A NARROW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM PRINCE WILLIAM
   TO ORANGE COUNTY VA HAS SUFFICIENTLY DEEPENED FOR A COUPLE OF CG
   LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HOUR VIA THE NLDN. A POCKET OF GREATER
   INSOLATION BETWEEN THIS LINE AND A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER SE
   VA/LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY HAS SUPPORTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING
   TO NEAR 70 DEG F. THIS WARMING IS GREATER THAN PROGGED IN MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND IS LIKELY SUPPORTING WEAK MLCAPE TO AROUND
   500 J/KG PER MODIFIED 1-H RAP SOUNDINGS. WITH PARTIAL INSOLATION
   TRANSLATING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...MEAGER
   BUOYANCY SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT ACROSS THE MD ERN SHORE DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SWLYS AND
   STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD FOSTER SMALL-SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES
   CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 11/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38837749 39127717 39237640 39247563 39147543 38697515
               38467537 38017620 37907664 37847700 37837752 37927779
               38067807 38437788 38837749 

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Page last modified: November 06, 2014
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