Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1905
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1905 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 PM CST THU NOV 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / FAR SRN MD / NERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062017Z - 062145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE
   PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUALLY
   DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH STRETCHED FROM SURRY COUNTY TO
   BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SERN VA AS OF 20Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
   BE OCCURRING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
   EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WITH TIME...EXPECT THIS
   CONVECTIVE BAND TO EXPAND SWWD AND NEWD IN AREAL EXTENT WHILE BODILY
   SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

   CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS OFFSET INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE CONTENT WITH RAP-BASED MLCAPE ESTIMATES OF ONLY 100-400
   J/KG. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DIURNAL-HEATING CYCLE...INSTABILITY
   WILL REMAIN LIMITED...PROHIBITING ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
   NONETHELESS...CURRENT VAD DATA FROM WAKEFIELD VA INDICATE A STRONG
   SWLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...TRANSIENT BOWING AND/OR SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE
   LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

   ..MEAD.. 11/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36117833 36647778 37017731 37357663 37447611 37337585
               36837565 36397580 36147603 35967688 35867759 35777798
               35907829 36117833 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 06, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities