MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN CO...W-CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 172151Z - 172315Z
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR
   SEVERE HAIL/WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...WITHIN A NARROW
   CORRIDOR ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO W-CNTRL KS. MODERATE
   TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSION S OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT THE
   OVERALL AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT AND MAY MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A
   WW ISSUANCE.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED
   A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING E/SEWD OF TSTMS IN ELBERT
   COUNTY CO TO ALONG THE WALLACE/GREELEY COUNTY LINE IN KS. SPLITTING
   CELLS WERE ALREADY EVIDENT IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY...SUPPORTED BY
   STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND PROFILES BETWEEN 2-7
   KM AGL SAMPLED BY PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
   AROUND 10 DEG F HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
   J/KG SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING
   COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTINCT LACK OF CU S OF THE
   BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT SUGGESTS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC
   FOR EXPANSION OF CONVECTION S OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...WITH A SEPARATE
   AREA OF TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE RATON MESA. OVERALL THREAT IN
   E-CNTRL CO MAY REMAIN TOO LOCALIZED TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/17/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   39650530 39950430 39840239 39510139 39130065 38880071
               38650088 38390130 38230185 38380254 38680304 38950409
               38750498 38870531 39650530